Democrats react to Bush's last (!) State of the Union Address

First of all, I should note that Governor Granholm will deliver her State of the State address tonight. Last year it aired live on PBS (Channel 11 on campus). Now, on to the reaction to Dubya's speech.

The official Democratic response to the State of the Union was given by Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius:



The Presidential candidates offered their two cents as well. Here's Barack Obama:



Hillary Clinton:

President Bush had one final chance tonight to acknowledge what the American people have known for years: that the economy is not working for middle class families. Unfortunately, what he offered was more of the same - a frustrating commitment to the same failed policies that helped turn record surpluses into large deficits, and push a thriving twenty-first century economy to the brink of recession.

John Edwards:

"The president tonight renewed his call for an economic recovery plan. But the plan he and Congress have offered leaves out tens of millions of Americans who need help the most. This plan would take months to have any impact, and the people I meet everyday on the campaign trail do not have months to wait. These people are hurting now and need this help now. Over the past seven years, typical workers' paychecks have failed to keep up with inflation, millions of families are facing the loss of their homes to foreclosures, health insurance premiums have doubled, and families are spending $1,000 more a year on gasoline. The State of the Union may be interesting political theater, but until we find bold solutions to the challenges facing the country, we will be stuck with the same old small, Washington answers."

Michigan politicians with their reactions include Carl Levin:

“We need to turn the page on President Bush’s ‘more of the same’ policies and priorities that he continued to offer in his State of the Union address. Democrats and Republicans in Congress need to seek common ground to turn that page.

Debbie Stabenow:

"Unfortunately, the President is pushing a stimulus package that leaves out one of the quickest, most effective ways to stimulate our economy – extending unemployment insurance. Economists and experts from both sides of the aisle agree that extending unemployment insurance will immediately boost consumer spending, while allowing individuals more time to search for a job in a difficult market. I will continue to lead this effort in the Senate Finance Committee."

John Conyers:

Near the end of his speech, the President asked us to "trust the people," and promised that as long as we do so, "our Nation will prosper, our liberty will be secure, and the State of our Union will remain strong." There's a great post on DailyKos about that passage, showing a series of statistics of how many Americans disagree with the President on Iraq, warrantless surveillance and torture. I am also certain that if you asked the millions of Americans in danger of foreclosure, or bankruptcy due to medical bills, or parents with children in failing schools, they would have a very different take on the state of our union than the President. So in that last section of the address, I found a ray of hope--a year from now, we will be addressed by a new President, and I trust that the people will reflect on the hardships and disappointments brought on by the Bush Administration, and that they will elect someone ready to lead the country in a new direction.

By the way, Alicia and I, along with others in Gary Peters's PSC301 class, were interviewed by 9&10 News regarding the State of the Union! Click the link and watch the video.

What's YOUR blood type?

We know Democrats are more attractive than Republicans. But can we College Democrats prove that we can out-bleed the other side?

We and the College Republicans are having a challenge to see which group can get more of its members to participate in Week 2 of the American Red Cross's CMU blood drive.

The blood drive will last from 11 AM to 5 PM Monday through Thursday at the following locations:

• Monday – Sweeney
• Tuesday – Finch
• Wednesday – Emmons
• Thursday – Towers

Be sure to eat plenty of food a couple hours before donating. When you do stop by to donate, let them know that you're with the College Democrats; they will be keeping a tally. For $7, you will also have a chance to buy a blue T-shirt with the phrase "I Bleed Blue" on the front.

The College Republicans have more members than the College Democrats, so we need as many College Dems and friends to donate as we can get. There is no prize for whichever group 'wins' (except bragging rights), but regardless of which side 'wins,' the ultimate winners are those who need the blood we are donating.

So see if you can find some time in your schedule to donate. The College Dems will thank you... but more importantly, the community will thank you.

Martin Luther King, Jr.

I thought I'd share with you a couple of items I found this week regarding Martin Luther King, Jr. First, there's this piece on Daily Kos, discussing some of his work toward economic equality. I highly recommend a look at this excellent compilation - even if it's just a glance.

Second, from YouTube comes his "I've Been to the Mountaintop" speech he delivered the night before he was assassinated.



Prophetic - and inspiring.

Dropped-out Dems May Drop Into Cabinet Chairs!

This month, the field of 2008 Democratic presidential hopefuls lost three competent competitors in rapid-fire succession: Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM,) and Senators Joe Biden and Chris Dodd of Delaware and Connecticut, respectively. While I do regret the loss of these three talented and capable individuals, I cannot shake the feeling that these worthy personages and those who will drop out in the future could play an important part in a Democratically-controlled White House; or may become cabinet officers in a projected Democratic presidency.

Let's talk about cabinet positions while we are on the subject. Who would be a good fit at Secretary of State? How about former Democratic presidential candidate Senator Joe Biden? Why Sen. Biden you ask? Well, he has been chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and is a key member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and has served as both its ranking minority member and is now in his second term as its chairman. He’s also a determined opponent of Bush’s badly-flawed Iraq policy, which wins mad points with me.

However, Biden has said that he would not serve as Sec. of State, saying that “under no administration will I accept the job of Secretary of State.” But, hold on a minute, Sen. Biden...politicians have been known to change their minds from time to time (look at our hapless, lackluster, and "ever lame"-duck president as a prime example.) The Secretary of State job is the integral position to begin the demanding tasks of rebuilding relationships and reconciling with old allies (foreign affairs-wise) that we have rubbed the wrong way since 2001; something Sen. Biden has said is crucial in restoring American prestige abroad. So when the Democrats win the White House in November, don’t be surprised if ol' Joe's keister warms the Secretary of State chair by January, 2009.

Gov. Richardson perhaps will return to his old position as either Sec. of Energy or U.S. Ambassador to the UN (both under President Bill Clinton,) but this perhaps is unlikely as there is talk of him being a Vice Presidential contender this year. Despite this, Richardson may just opt to remain as New Mexico’s governor, a position which Richardson enjoys widespread popularity. Gov. Richardson would benefit greatly from a Hillary Clinton victory in November, which would make his prospects for a cabinet position more likely than say a Barack Obama or John Edwards win. In any event, his name will be up in the air as a potential cabinet member or policy maker in either one of these administrations.

Chris Dodd, one of the original "Watergate Babies" elected in the wake of President Richard Nixon's resignation in 1974 (which includes Democratic Representatives John Murtha and Henry Waxman and Senator Patrick Leahy amongst others,) probably is a long shot for a cabinet position although he does chair the Senate Banking Committee, which may allude to a possible Dodd Treasury Secretary position; but he has only been in that position for a year and Chris considers himself no longer a candidate for the Senate in 2010, which may suggest that he perhaps is retiring from political life after his term is over. However, don't count him totally and completely out of an executive position just yet.

What about ones still in...so far…Dennis Kucinich perhaps as US Ambassador to the UN? Will former Sen. Mike “Pentagon Papers” Gravel (D-AK) be ignored by the new Democratic administration as he was ignored in seemingly all of the televised presidential debates? Does a cabinet seat wait for John Edwards, such as Attorney General, or will he return to North Carolina empty handed?

These, and many other questions (i.e. “has anyone seen Mike Gravel lately?” or "would First Gentleman be an appropriate title for Bill Clinton in Hillary's administration?") shall be answered on Election Day, 2008...at least, we hope they will be...especially questions concerning Mike Gravel, of whom I worry a great deal about...and know very little of.

Postscript: Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) has dropped out of the 2008 Republican presidential race. He is the only Republican contender to drop out so far in this contest. I suggest those individuals who's names are not Romney, McCain, Huckabee, or Giuliani still in the Republican race get out now. It is going to get increasingly ugly after Super Tuesday if the front runners have triple digit delegate counts, when you can barely crest ten all together.

365 days till Inauguration Day, 2009.



-NelsOnline

Michigan primary wrapup

• Hillary won an underwhelming 55% of the vote, while 40% voted Uncommitted. Hillary won 73 DNC delegates, while Uncommitted won 55. I call Hillary's win underwhelming because she was supposed to dominate this election. As John Nichols of The Nation writes:
  

  As the only leading Democratic contender to keep her name on the ballot after Michigan officials moved their primary ahead of the opening date scheduled by the Democratic National Committee, Clinton was perfectly positioned. She had no serious opposition. She also had the strong support of top Michigan Democrats such as Governor Jennifer Granholm and U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow.
  
  Usually, a prominent presidential contender running a primary campaign without serious opposition and with strong in-state support from party leaders can count on winning 90 percent or more of the vote. That's how it went for George Bush when he was running without serious opposition in Republican primaries in 2004, and for Bill Clinton when he was essentially unopposed in the Democratic primaries in 1996.



• On Michigan Liberal:
  
  • Mark Grebner tells us how each district voted.
    
  • Phil offers an analysis of West Michigan numbers.
    
  • Nirmal crunches the exit poll data.
    
  • Laura analyzes the youth vote numbers. Uncommitted actually outperformed Hillary among young voters!


• You gotta love it: The Michigan Republican Party erroneously sent out a press release congratulating McCain on the victory he didn't have. Oops.
  


• One more bit from Michigan Liberal, written by yours truly. Did holding the primary early have the desired effect of giving Michigan more influence in the nominating process? No.
  

  Had we held a February 5 caucus - an idea which I supported even when the caucus was set for February 9 all the while other states were moving theirs to February 5 - Michigan would have been the fourth-largest state with a primary or caucus that day (and the second-largest not including the home states of the front-runners). Candidates would have come to Michigan, and their campaigns - as well as our Party - would have been better for it.
  
  Yet some people decided that it was better for Dems to break DNC rules (arcane as they are) and base our delegate count on a primary that would not have gone on if not for four extreme conservatives on the state Supreme Court. MDP leaders knew that some of the candidates would not be campaigning if they decided to go with a primary, yet most of them chose to go ahead with it anyway.
  
  The result? Instead of having more influence in our nominating process, we have at the moment pretty much no influence (and it is uncertain whether we will have influence in the end). Instead of unity, as the LA Times put it, we have rancor. Instead of Michigan issues being at the forefront of the campaign, we are once again seen as a laughing stock to the rest of the country.
  

My Perspective of the Candidates So Far...the Long Version!

OK, now that I got my grandfather's soapbox cleaned and primed for the 2008 Presidential election and all of my "Mondale for Me in '84" and "Dukakis for President '88" stickers have finally been peeled off of it, let me give you what I have gathered in the race so far, at least about the candidates.

NelsOnline's views and perceptions of the three major candidates of each party, starting with the Republicans.

Mitt Romney: With his second-place showing in Iowa to the Chuck Norris and apparently God-backed Mike Huckabee and his second-place finish in NH to the oldest "comeback kid" I have ever seen, Sen. John McCain; the former Massachusetts governor can at least rest assured that he is number one with the delegates of Wyoming, winning that state's Republican primary and getting eight out of a total of fourteen delegates.

Of course, this is the same state where Rep. Duncan Hunter actually placed third in the same primary, garnering 1 (one) delegate. Despite this 1 win and 2 loss record so far, I feel that unless Giuliani comes out of hiding sometime soon and does something or if Hunter, Ron Paul and even Fred Thompson actually become viable Republican competitors overnight, Mitt Romney is still the front runner for the Republican presidential nod, despite what certain polls say; but only just barely. He might be tripped up in the south, where his Mormon faith might clash with the voters of the "Bible Belt," which will be very beneficial to Mike Huckabee if Huckabee is cagey enough to press his advantage here, and believe me, Mike will. The Michigan Republican primary on January 15th, unlike our Democratic primary, will be interesting to see as it will be Romney v. Huckabee, with McCain making a strong showing. He's gotta try to do something with that personality of his as well. I try not to insult people without having just cause, but the man has as much personality as a used paint can. Come on Mitt, liven it up a little, huh?

Mike Huckabee: With a name like Huckabee, how can one lose? And to prove this point, ol' Huck pulled the Iowa Republican primary out from Mitt Romney's feet (not to mention Romney's beautifully sculpted hair.) Even before this, Huckabee showed his Hollywood star-drawing power by getting the endorsement of "Walker, Texas Ranger" star Chuck Norris, which should garner the USA Network vote for the former pastor. He also has athletes campaigning for him as well, if one counts pro wrestling as an athletic sport, in the person of WWE superstar Ric Flair. I am so sure that candidates were lined up for blocks to get the endorsement of a popular (yet saggy) pro wrestler and the main character from the "Missing in Action" and "Delta Force" movies.

Yet even with these two personages pulling for him in this election cycle, Huckabee still has some major Republican primaries to win and a lot of people to win over in order for him to cement his chances for the Republican presidential nomination. Perhaps actually having a foreign policy plan would help! As I see it though, he must use the momentum he got by winning the Iowa Republican primary and offset McCain's hard-fought win in NH with wins or very strong showings in the upcoming primaries, Michigan for starters, to have any chance of defeating Romney overall. He can best do this by winning primaries in the region where he seemingly has a decided advantage, the south. Decisive wins here, especially in South Carolina's Republican primary and the Republican primaries encompassing the already-mentioned "Bible Belt," may bolster his chances in primaries elsewhere where he might not have much chance of winning, thereby facilitating a steamrolling effect to the Republican nomination and upsetting Romney's chances for the nomination. If he cannot do this, even with the highly-coveted Chuck Norris and Ric Flair endorsements, it is curtains for his campaign.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ): Is it just me or is John McCain getting more and more pale every time I see him on Meet the Press? You would think that since he represents Arizona in the Senate, he would have a better tan. Notwithstanding this, McCain resurrected his practically-dead campaign with a strong win in NH this past week. Could this be a revitalization of McCain's dim prospects for the Republican presidential nomination? Hardly! As we were speaking of endorsements earlier in reference to Huckabee, did you hear about Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I-CT) endorsement of his fellow senator for president? This bit of news stunned me somewhat and dropped Lieberman a few pegs down on my popularity ladder (honestly, he wasn't all that high up anyway.)

Why do I say hardly when referring to McCain's chances for the Republican presidential nod? Well, he has lost his "maverick" persona in minds of many Americans since his run for the presidency in 2000. The reasoning behind this is because over the course of the previous seven years of the militarized "Howdy Doody Show" that has become the George W. Bush presidency, McCain seemingly could not lance his lips from the hindquarters of his onetime presidential opponent enough to maintain his "maverick" status. Even on issues where McCain had some doubts, he was behind Bush II almost all the time. This will become an assured hindrance in the coming primaries.

What McCain needs to do in the coming weeks to win more is to distance himself from the policies of Bush II and regain his lost "maverick" status again, thereby increasing his chances for important Republican primary wins. McCain must utilize his built-in clout with veterans by coming up with fresher ideas pertaining to the War in Iraq and veterans care. He must also court and garner crucial votes from younger voters as well as well as padding his popularity amongst older voters. If unsuccessful in any of these, no amount of Ensure, Centrum Silver, Ben-Gay, or old episodes of Matlock will help McCain win any future Republican primaries, much less the Republican presidential nod itself.

...and to not leave anyone out, the rest of the Republican hopefuls, in short:

Fred Thompson: Keep telling people that you are the outsider...and that you were on "Law and Order"...and that you played the air traffic controller in "Die Hard II." You'll win at least two more votes, that of "Law and Order" alum Sam Waterston and "Die Hard" mainstay Bruce Willis...well, maybe.

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX): The "YouTube Guru" of the 2008 Republican presidential race. You have raised considerable amounts of money on the Internet and attracted younger voters in spades as a result of your admittedly fresh use of the World Wide Web in your campaign, yet you really haven't had much of a strong primary showing anywhere to show for it. Granted, as of this blogs posting, 12 January 2008, you have 2 delegates...yet, is there a chance you might get into double digits delegate-wise? Say 11 or 12? Possibly more?

Rudy Giuliani: Whoa...where did you go? You were here a minute ago! Weren't you the Presidential front-runner of the Republicans not that long ago? What happened Rudy? Did I just miss you or are you in a cave somewhere fashioning a new message apart from the whole "I was mayor of NYC during 9/11" shtick? Oh that's right, you are hedging your bets in Florida because as you know "as Florida goes, so goes the nation." The last time that happened, Americans sadly were able to complete that phrase to include "as Florida goes, so goes the nation...right down the toilet!"

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA): You would think that having Brig. Gen. Chuck "Sound Barrier-breaker" Yeager as the "honorary" chairman of your campaign would help win you some delegates by now. But according to the delegate tally (one) that does not seem to be proving out for you. Of course, making several rather controversial statements over the past few months of your campaign does not help too much either.

That ends the Republicans...now for the Democratic Party's Presidential candidates...the sweetest smelling and sharpest dressed group of candidates in the world.

Barack Obama (D-IL): I like Barack Obama for many different reasons. He is incredibly dynamic and has a youthful spirit that I dare say we haven't had in a presidential election for quite some time. Obama is articulate and extraordinarily intelligent and surprisingly savvy to boot. He does not use his skin color as a crutch but rather as an effective weapon, perhaps one that will ultimately lead him to the White House. As a true blue Democrat, I feel that any Democrat...heck, any four-slice toaster, would be better at the presidency than George W. "pretzel-choker" Bush is now.

In my view, what Barack needs to do to solidify his presidential nomination is to really reach out to the black vote. Not only to the black vote but to other minority groups as well, including women. Obama must press the youth vote even more, which seems to be working well with a few of my Democratic chums here at CMU. Yet, he must also defeat the notion that his inexperience in certain matters would be a liability as President and/or people's misconceptions pertaining to race issues, which I feel he will clear up convincingly whether he wins the nomination or not. Winning in Iowa really galvanized his campaign and terribly shook the longtime Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY,) who promptly countered Obama by winning a hard fought primary in NH. For Obama to win the nomination, he must win or have very strong showings during "Super Duper Tuesday," February 5, 2008. As with all of the candidates in the 2008 Presidential Election, this day will make and break campaigns. After this day, I feel that the race will be truly on. The stragglers will be cut and we shall be left with the final four, as it were, for better or for worse. Obama will survive and become one of the four left.

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY): I would vote for the pantsuit-clad Hillary Clinton if it meant we had Bill Clinton back in the White House, and since they are married for better or for worse, this would happen. Bill would be the first ex-president to return to the White House as a spouse of a president and consequently, the first man to be "First Gentleman" of the land. I can see it now: Bill redecorating the White House to include Budweiser mirrors and commemorative plates featuring the "Legends of NASCAR" on the mantle. Seriously though, Sen. Clinton is also a strong, dynamic and savvy politician in her own right and has perhaps all the experience one needs to be president. Yet this may be a hindrance to her campaign as well...maybe she's too qualified (as opposed to George W. Bush who's qualifications include being an officer in the TX Air National Guard and a male cheerleader in college.)

Hillary, for her to win and have people vote for her must assuredly increase her energies and press her advantage as the perceived "front-runner." Don't let Obama, or more distantly, Fmr. Sen. John Edwards gain any ground on you. "Keep on, keepin' on" as Gladys Knight would say. Hillary Clinton is probably going to be the hardest working presidential candidate in American presidential election history. She must go out to as many county fairs, coffee shops, quilting bees, spelling bees, police barbecues, and inundate the press with her presence at every turn, delivering her message in between. She must give the press her schedule and with cameras rolling, prepare to kiss every baby, smile at every schoolchild, cry at appropriate emotional times, laugh at bad jokes, clap at the necessary times, and swallow down local delicacies she wouldn't give her dog. She must not let up, period! As a matter of fact, I would advise this to all of the candidates, not just Clinton. They must want the presidency and project that need to the voters, Hillary included. Hillary will be there, too.

Fmr. Sen. John Edwards (D-NC): I was indeed surprised to see that Edwards received second place in Iowa, but as I looked at it, it was rather appropriate. Edwards comes from the heartland of the south and Iowa lies at the heartland of the Midwest. There is a kind of a kinship there...and it also helps to campaign practically everywhere in Iowa before the primary date, not just here and there. He actually made the effort to go out to the voters and become acquainted with the electorate, not just meet and greets. Out of all of the candidates in this election, he has the rare "personal touch" that voters have not had for years out of a presidential candidate. He also, with the revelation of his wife's fight w/ cancer, did not drop out or blink an eye and continued campaigning, garnering America's sympathy vote, yet sympathy votes do not win elections, actual votes do.

For Edwards to win the nomination, both Obama and Clinton have to have near-fatal campaign disasters for Edwards to have a great shot at the Democratic nomination, or, lacking this, victories in SC and a miraculous showing on Super Duper Tuesday to even have a chance at the nod. Like Clinton, he must make himself seen at as many places as humanly possible in key primary states. Like Obama, he must also shake off the inexperience mantle and prove to voters that he has what it takes to win and be our nation's fourty-fourth president. Edwards might be there after Super Tuesday. Consider him a "dark horse" in this campaign.

and the rest of the Democratic hopefuls...well, at least whoever is left!

Farewell to Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, and Senators Joe Biden and Chris Dodd. We have some lovely parting gifts and just for running...we have perhaps some cabinet chairs opening up for you in the near future, so keep tabs on that.

Note: Somehow, we're going to have to find some way to discern Joe Biden from Chris Dodd and vice versa.

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH): What can I say about Dennis Kucinich. I like him a lot. His peace plan seems a valid one. But there are just sometimes where I just want to say to Rep. Kucinich "I like you ...but you are kind of peeing against the tide in this election." Sometimes you gotta know when to stop and start packing away for 2012...but I'll say this for him...he's determined...at least for now.

Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK): I can honestly say this about Mike Gravel...I do not know a thing about Mike Gravel apart from his role in the "Pentagon Papers" controversy in the early 1970's. Yes, I have read his positions on various topics, but as he's been out of the public spotlight since, well, before I was born (1981,) it's hard to really be for him. He seems to be a nice enough fellow, but like I said, I just don't know him well enough apart from the historical aspect of him to formulate a like or dislike. But, in defense of Gravel, I like Wikipedia's pic of Gravel more than I do CNN's pic of him. Not much of a defense, granted, but nonetheless, a defense.

I apologize for the length of this blog. I promise that in the future, I shall be concise and relatively normal-sized from now on. So until next week, or, if something irks me enough to write about it sooner, I wish you a very Democratic day.

NelsOnline.

Hillary ekes out New Hampshire upset; more analysis from me

With most of the votes in, CNN and other outlets say that Hillary Clinton and John McCain have each won their respective parties' primaries in New Hampshire. Time for me once again to don my pundit cap. (Apparently I look a lot more attractive with a pundit cap than without one.)

In terms of pledged delegates to the Democratic and Republican national conventions, Barack Obama still holds a thinner-than-Wheat-Thins lead of 25-24 over Clinton, with Edwards at 18. Romney has 24 delegates to 18 for Mike Huckabee, 10 for John McCain, 6 for Fred Thompson, 2 for Ron Paul, and 1 for Duncan Hunter. Again, a candidate must win a majority of the convention delegates to win the nomination. More on how delegates are selected later.

If nothing else, Hillary and McCain proved with this primary that they are top-notch contenders and are both very much in it. Big victory for Hillary? Yes. Setback for Obama? Yes. Fluke? We'll find out soon enough.

For Hillary, this win should remind everyone that it's not over yet, despite her disappointing third-place finish in Iowa. Must do well in: Michigan. I mean, there are five choices on the ballot in Tuesday's primary: Clinton; Gravel; Kucinich; Gravel; Dodd; and Uncommitted. Gravel and Kucinich were the bottom finishers in both Iowa and New Hampshire, while Dodd is no longer running. More on Michigan's primary in the next couple days.

For Obama, this could in many respects be considered a disappointment. He was, after all, leading by several points in most polls leading up to the primary. He had a certain amount of momentum that has now been lost. That said, only twice in the last ten elections has a Democrat won every single Democratic primary and caucus, and Obama only lost New Hampshire by two points. Also, as I mentioned, he holds a one-vote lead in the delegate count. If nothing else, this should motivate Obama supporters and remind them not to take things for granted. Oh, and polls aren't always that reliable. Must do well in: South Carolina. Nearly half of South Carolinians who took CNN's exit poll in the 2004 primary were black. Neither New Hampshire nor Iowa can be considered nearly that racially diverse.

Edwards has pulled two disappointing performances in a row. Both Clinton and Obama received twice as many votes as Edwards in New Hampshire. Must do well in: South Carolina, for three reasons. First, he was born in Seneca, SC. Second, he currently lives in North Carolina. Third, he won South Carolina over Kerry in 2004. Should he follow his disappointing showing in the Granite State with another one in the Palmetto State, look for many in the 'Anybody-but-Hillary' crowd to ratchet up the pressure on Edwards to drop out and let said anti-Hillary crowd more or less unite behind Obama.

Richardson has been a much bigger disappointment than Edwards. Richardson took 2% in Iowa and 5% in New Hampshire, failing to win a single delegate to the Convention. Must do well in: Nevada, with its heavy Latino population.

Just a few months ago, McCain was all but counted out. His campaign looked like it was on its deathbed. Yet with a third-place finish in Iowa and a victory in New Hampshire, it appears that (to borrow an expression) rumors of the death of his campaign were greatly exaggerated. Must do well in: Michigan, where it has been a battle between him and Romney from the get-go.

Romney won the barely publicized Wyoming caucus last Saturday and has finished second in the other two states. Despite their second-place finishes, he and Obama each actually lead their National Convention delegate counts. Still he must do well in: Michigan, which his father governed from 1963-1969.

What happened to Huckabee? McCain doubled his total in the Granite State, and Romney came close to pulling off the same feat. South Carolina has a higher percentage of evangelical and born-again Christians, and regional favoritism could benefit him. Thus, he must do well in: South Carolina.

Rudy Giuliani edged Ron Paul after finishing behind him in Iowa. Fred Thompson took a dismal 1%. Why is Duncan Hunter still running?

Michigan Dem Chair Mark Brewer discusses Presidential primary

Iowa results - and where we go from here

Before I get into the part about Iowa, I would like to remind you once again to get an absentee ballot for the January 15 primary TODAY at your city, township, or county clerk's office. This is the last weekday before the new semester starts, and requesting an absentee ballot by mail would be impractical at this point. Supporters of Obama, Edwards, and Richardson are strongly advised to vote Uncommitted.

Here are the near-final Iowa numbers from CNN as of 2:45 AM:

Obama - 38%
Edwards - 30%
Clinton - 29%
Richardson - 2%
Biden - 1%

Biden and Chris Dodd have dropped out.

Huckabee - 34%
Romney - 26%
Thompson - 13%
McCain - 13%
Paul - 10%
Giuliani - 3%
Hunter - 0%

Time for some analysis. By winning, Huckabee and Obama have momentum heading into next Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. The Iowa Democratic caucus was seen as a very close three-way contest amongst Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. The Republican caucus was seen as a toss-up between Huckabee and Romney.

For Obama to win by eight points, therefore, should be considered particularly good news for him. Also good for him is that quite a few more independents - a voting bloc where he did particularly well in Iowa - are expected to vote in New Hampshire. Also, the fact that he won an overwhelmingly white state tells us that, well, his appeal crosses racial lines. If he can follow his win in Iowa with another one in New Hampshire, then he will have high expectations for South Carolina, whose black population is quite high.

Edwards really needed to do well here. Had he finished behind Hillary, I doubt his campaign would've ended, but his organization was said to be lagging behind Hillary and Obama in other states. In other words, unlike Obama and Hillary, most of his chips were down in Iowa, and he needed to do well there to get some mo'. Now he needs to do well in South Carolina, where he was born. That said, his second-place finish couldn't hurt too much; for him to beat Hillary (albeit by a small margin) gives him some momentum.

For Hillary - long considered the front-runner - to finish behind both Obama and Edwards has got to be disappointing. Having said that, she and Obama are the two with the most organized campaigns. She had been leading in several states. Whether she gets any momentum from Michigan - where she is one of four candidates in contention (along with 'Uncommitted') - remains to be seen, since Michigan has lost its delegates because of the fact that holding a primary on January 15 violated Party rules.

Richardson needs to do well somewhere. Preferably Nevada, with its high Latino population. With just 2% in Iowa, his campaign is on the ropes.

Romney has to do well in New Hampshire for two reasons. One, the state he governed, Massachusetts, borders New Hampshire. Two, Iowa has a higher percentage of evangelical and born-again Republican voters than New Hampshire; they are seen as the main reason Huckabee won. If Huckabee can use his Iowa momentum and overcome those obstacles to win New Hampshire, then he is the clear front0-runner heading into the Michigan primary a week later. (Michigan Republicans lost only half of their delegates for scheduling the primary on January 15.) If Romney loses New Hampshire, then he MUST hold off Huckabee here in Michigan, which his father governed during much of the 1960s.

For McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani, it's a fight to stay in the top tier. Ron Paul could yet pull off a surprise, since he seems to be sharing in the momentum. Why Duncan Hunter is still in the race beats me.

You might look at these returns and think, 'well, Obama did great.' I, an Obama supporter, am pleased that he won. But you see, what matters is how many delegates to the Democratic and Republican National Conventions are won by each candidate. Obama holds a narrow lead with 16 Democratic delegates, followed by Clinton at 15 while Edwards has 14. Huckabee leads the Republican delegate count with 17, followed by Romney at 12, McCain and Thompson at 3 apiece, and Paul with 2.

Even more interesting? Both parties require that a candidate gets a majority of the delegate votes at the convention. No candidate has a majority on either side.

Now, here's what's likely to happen. As the primary season continues, a clearer picture will emerge on both sides of the aisle. Seeing writing on the wall, more candidates will follow Biden and Dodd out of the race, meaning less competition for those who are still in it. In 2004 eight Democrats were in the running leading up to the caucuses. Dick Gephardt dropped out after Iowa; Joe Lieberman exited after New Hampshire; Wes Clark's swan song came following voting in Tennessee and Virginia; and Howard Dean's downfall was completed after the Wisconsin primary. After 'Super Tuesday' which was then in March and not February) John Edwards dropped out.

In all likelihood, as candidates drop out they will release their delegates. That is, they will allow the delegates pledged to vote for them to instead vote for someone else. In 2004, for example, many of the candidates received delegates, but only Kerry won a majority of the delegates. The other candidates released their delegates, allowing them to vote for Kerry at the convention and providing a near-unanimous vote for Kerry.

So there you have it. Obama and Huckabee are by no means assured of their nominations. But they are the front-runners and they do have that all-important momentum heading into the rest of the primary season.

It's Primary (And Caucus) Time!

Happy Election Year! Before you come back to CMU for the spring semester, you'll probably want to pick up an absentee primary ballot for the January 15 primary at your city or township clerk's office.

When you pick up your ballot, you will see five choices:

• Hillary Clinton
  
• Chris Dodd
  
• Mike Gravel
  
• Dennis Kucinich
  
• Uncommitted

The Michigan Democratic Party recommends that you vote Uncommitted if you support one of the candidates not on the Michigan ballot (Joe Biden, John Edwards, Barack Obama, or Bill Richardson).

If at least 15% of the voters in your congressional district vote for a certain candidate or for Uncommitted, that caandidate (or Uncommitted) will receive a percentage of the Democratic National Convention delegates allocated to that district (of which there will be between 4 and 7, depending on how well Kerry, Gore, and Clinton did in those districts). If a candidate or Uncomiktted receives 15% of the vote statewide, they will receive a portion of Michigan's 45 statewide delegate votes. (Delegates themselves will be elected at a future date). This means that even if you don't think your candidate has a chance in heck of winning Michigan, (s)he could still win some delegates.

Now, as for Iowa. The upcoming caucuses are an unusual, somewhat hard-to-explain process.

Voters will first gather in designated areas of the caucus site (usually a gymnasium, conference room, or if a precinct is small, perhaps someone's home), based on whom they support for President. So there will be a section designated for Obama, one for Clinton, one for Edwards, one for Biden, etc.

For thirty minutes supporters of each candidate will try to persuade people to come support their candidate.

When the thirty minutes are up, officials will take an initial count and determine which candidates have enough votes in the caucus to allow for a delegate supporting that candidate to be elected from that precinct to the county convention.

For the next thirty minutes after that, some caucus members will re-align; that is, those who support candidates who did not receive enough suppoort in the first round will often team up with candidates that could win delegates.

After those thirty minutes are up, a final tally is taken, and delegates are elected to the county convention proportionally. That is, the number of delegates elected to that convention will be divvied up amongst the Presidential candidates based on how many caucus-goers suppoort them.

Perhaps, like me, you understand things better when explained in the form of an example.

Say you live in Iowa and you attend the caucus supporting Ontario Sneed for President. You go to the part of the caucus room where other Sneed suppoorters are gathered. For thirty minutes, you may stay in the Sneed section, or you may go around the room asking people elsewhere in the room to support Sneed (incluiding those who aren't in a candidate's section). After those thirty minutes are up, the first vote is taken, and it is determined that there aren't many others supporting Sneed - just you and a few other bare-chested folks wearing maroon letters. (I just had to get that Sneed's Creed reference there for you, Karl and Bryan. ;-) )

You may decide to stay in hopes that others will come to the Sneed group, giving him enough support to elect a delegate to represent him. Or you and your fellow Sneed supporters may decide to go into groups supporting other candidates with views such as Sneed's. You may go around the room hearing supporters of various candidates and ask them why you should support their campaign. Finally, you decide that Dan Lefevour offers the kind of leadership America needs at this critical juncture. So you decide to make him your final choice.

In the end, Lefevour gets the support of 40% of caucus-goers, with Ike Brown taking 40% and Damien Linson, 20%. Your precinct will elect five delegates to the County Convention. This means that two of the delegates will be Lefevour supporters, two will be Brown supporters, and one will have supported Linson.

When you watch the returns on caucus night, the percentages you see each candidate get are actually based on the number of delegates elected to the conventions. In other words, if Biden gets 18% in Iowa, that will mean he got 18% of the delegates elected to those conventions.

Confused? So am I. But that's the way it is.